Wednesday, November 9, 2011

The Relationship Between Energy Costs, Global Temperatures, CO2, and Energy Consumption (Part I)

What is the relationship between energy costs, global temperatures, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and energy consumption? They are not only closely related, they correlate almost perfectly. Data for all four classifications (energy costs, global temperatures, CO2 emissions, and energy consumption) was evaluated over the past 26 years (1984 – 2009 – this is the last year data was available). Each classification (energy costs, global temperatures, CO2 emissions, and energy consumption) was evaluated using the cost and usage of various energy sources: coal, natural gas, oil, hydro, solar, nuclear, wind, biomass and geothermal. This data was obtained from multiple sources including the Department of Energy (U.S. energy information page) and from a few climate change sites that report global temperatures and CO2 levels in the atmosphere. A linear error model was created to evaluate the data to see its impact on energy costs, global temperatures, CO2 emissions, and energy consumption. To understand how to create and evaluate a linear error model please refer to my blogs: Creating an Election Model Part I, Part II, and Part III on October 4, 5, and 6 2010. Below is the data used in the linear error model:

Year

Temp

Temp5

CO2

Energy Cost

USP

Energy Cons

CO2 GDP

CO2 GDP1

Coal KWH1

NG KWH1

Oil KWH1

NP KWH1

BIO KWH1

Hydro KWH1

Geo KWH1

Solar KWH1

Wind KWH1

1984

0.13

0.16

344.42

6.25

0.241588

76,713,905

830

701

1.4305119

4.1803792

3.2815861

0.103086

0.2586444

0.491240922

0.04306401

2.2344E-05

1.4799E-05

1985

0.12

0.22

345.9

6.44

0.235288

76,490,692

820

672

1.4251773

4.0072186

3.3615293

0.1202246

0.2669266

0.438086805

0.05264189

4.5841E-05

1.32745E-05

1986

0.18

0.24

347.15

6.44

0.230906

76,756,373

810

650

1.452073

3.9395768

3.2824795

0.1304031

0.2618799

0.457170483

0.05872764

6.127E-05

9.82465E-06

1987

0.34

0.26

348.93

6.37

0.232802

79,172,664

800

651

1.4884201

4.052258

3.1347853

0.1405256

0.2549434

0.389378318

0.06095451

4.5108E-05

8.20286E-06

1988

0.41

0.33

351.48

6.35

0.235984

82,819,365

790

654

1.5020819

4.079081

3.0037374

0.1618715

0.2621525

0.338153948

0.05666

3.8129E-05

1.95568E-06

1989

0.27

0.38

352.91

6.45

0.235905

84,943,729

780

643

1.5372354

4.1101475

2.7837345

0.1612691

0.2728448

0.408380604

0.08217137

0.02228322

0.00475697

1990

0.47

0.34

354.19

6.57

0.231887

84,651,424

770

625

1.5865355

4.1374145

2.6365779

0.172269

0.2315601

0.429856343

0.08528884

0.02359397

0.006139483

1991

0.42

0.29

355.59

6.75

0.231098

84,606,296

766

621

1.5338165

4.1351803

2.6712938

0.1821072

0.2366436

0.427603296

0.08836422

0.0248863

0.00654943

1992

0.14

0.3

356.37

6.82

0.236123

85,955,467

755

612

1.546787

4.1924503

2.604929

0.1847864

0.2508336

0.373245257

0.08966037

0.02550833

0.006387677

1993

0.17

0.29

357.04

6.93

0.238454

87,601,399

745

607

1.4844886

4.3411896

2.5393931

0.1871848

0.2547774

0.422171471

0.09558365

0.02716777

0.006786088

1994

0.3

0.28

358.88

6.91

0.240162

89,256,869

729

592

1.5659371

4.3668369

2.3872056

0.1888506

0.2562424

0.378534297

0.08584965

0.02707469

0.007524257

1995

0.44

0.33

360.88

6.89

0.238916

91,169,286

717

583

1.5515063

4.2811497

2.3366462

0.198424

0.2607326

0.449449185

0.07417759

0.02742704

0.006863084

1996

0.36

0.43

362.84

6.86

0.241701

94,172,227

710

582

1.5687341

4.2609308

2.2670406

0.1951213

0.2606299

0.494179841

0.0781887

0.02730397

0.006905414

1997

0.38

0.46

363.76

6.85

0.241752

94,761,405

686

564

1.6046652

4.2723039

2.2565676

0.1816583

0.2567431

0.501228068

0.08053422

0.02707679

0.006935284

1998

0.7

0.45

366.63

6.74

0.245347

95,178,462

659

545

1.6461016

4.296635

2.1745415

0.193541

0.2406126

0.451423654

0.08091063

0.02675413

0.006336463

1999

0.43

0.49

368.31

6.64

0.248991

96,812,431

633

526

1.6198953

4.3037291

2.0779723

0.211681

0.2474275

0.454441761

0.08284129

0.0267889

0.009574141

2000

0.41

0.55

369.48

6.81

0.239983

98,969,664

624

521

1.5902187

4.4006801

2.0745111

0.2199708

0.2522749

0.393243486

0.07976915

0.02600341

0.011972448

2001

0.56

0.55

371.02

7.29

0.240135

96,316,206

607

506

1.6378856

4.4885591

2.0502718

0.2233881

0.2190373

0.311877905

0.07794314

0.02549592

0.014527239

2002

0.68

0.58

373.1

7.2

0.236797

97,853,419

602

501

1.6024089

4.3848167

2.057759

0.2296704

0.228847

0.379100808

0.08331345

0.02541817

0.022275168

2003

0.65

0.65

375.64

7.44

0.229022

98,130,959

592

493

1.5736934

4.47503

2.0558244

0.2267584

0.2397917

0.40237339

0.08476128

0.02537665

0.024482094

2004

0.59

0.67

377.38

7.61

0.218337

100,313,215

583

485

1.6241176

4.3379936

1.9620924

0.2337373

0.2556507

0.382372132

0.08726753

0.02567078

0.030222656

2005

0.77

0.68

379.97

8.14

0.207232

100,444,707

568

473

1.6657972

4.2662489

1.8903268

0.2345334

0.2675885

0.388399099

0.08860759

0.02660753

0.038385518

2006

0.65

0.66

381.88

8.9

0.200377

99,789,632

547

454

1.676328

4.2891668

1.8266393

0.2315597

0.2727646

0.404333136

0.08697873

0.02849909

0.055752899

2007

0.75

0.68

384

9.13

0.19661

101,527,089

544

452

1.6403719

4.4296163

1.7966175

0.236157

0.2923386

0.341636389

0.08765979

0.03165016

0.071326483

2008

0.55

0.65

387

9.74

0.19

99,401,914

529

436

1.6242809

4.5401069

1.7175183

0.22956

0.3160297

0.342013483

0.08836366

0.03686118

0.111455643

2009P

0.72

0.7

391

9.89

0.180645

94,578,267

510

416

1.4785753

4.7142289

1.8486182

0.2288414

0.3206854

0.36749038

0.09209944

0.04165733

0.143335169

Where Temp and Temp5 are the annual and 5 year average of global temperature increases over the 1950 to 1980 average global temperatures respectively; CO2 is the annual increase in CO2 emissions in the earth’s atmosphere in parts per million; Energy Cost is the average annual cost for electricity in kilowatt – hours; USP is the percentage of the annual contribution of global emissions by the United States; Energy Cons is the annual energy consumption by the United States in billions of British Thermal Units (BTUs – 3,412 BTUs is equal to 1 kilowatt-hour of electricity); CO2 GDP and CO2 GDP1 are equal to the United States carbon emissions output to produce one dollar of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revenue; and Coal KWH1, NG KWH1, Oil KWH1, NP KWH1, Bio KWH1, Hydro KWH1, Geo KWH1, Solar KWH1, and Wind KWH1 are the annual cost and percentage of use of coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear power, biomass, hydro power, geothermal, solar, and wind energy sources. In the next part of this series of blogs a linear regression analysis on the above model will be completed to solve for energy consumption.

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