Saturday, November 26, 2011

The Relationship Between Energy Costs, Global Temperatures, CO2, and Energy Consumption (Part VII)

To be fair to solar and wind power, I performed a similar analysis on the same model except this time we kept solar and wind usage constant while increasing the use of nuclear power by 25%. Oil and coal usage were each reduced 10% and natural gas usage was reduced 5% (same as in the previous model analysis of increasing wind and solar energy usage). Below are the results solving for CO2 emissions in our atmosphere and the annual and five year average of global temperatures.

CO2

R Square

1

SE

6.20E-01

Coefficients

Coefficient Value

Value

CO2 Levels

Ave

CO2 Levels

Intercept

391.7

1.00E+00

3.92E+02

1.00E+00

391.7

Coal KWH1

-7.136

1.48E+00

-1.06E+01

9.00E-01

-6.4224

NG KWH1

0.4164

4.71E+00

1.96E+00

3.10E+00

1.29084

Oil KWH1

-4.139

1.85E+00

-7.66E+00

1.15E+00

-4.75985

NP KWH1

29.63

2.30E-01

6.81E+00

7.00E-01

20.741

Hydro KWH1

5.829

3.67E-01

2.14E+00

3.67E-01

2.139243

Geo KWH1

25.52

9.20E-02

2.35E+00

9.20E-02

2.34784

Solar KWh1

-41.16

4.17E-02

-1.72E+00

4.17E-02

-1.716372

Wind KWH1

41.13

1.43E-01

5.88E+00

1.43E-01

5.88159

CO2 GDP

-0.05882

5.10E+02

-3.00E+01

4.80E+02

-28.2336

CO2 GDP1

-0.001466

4.16E+02

-6.10E-01

3.90E+02

-0.57174

USP

-7.274

1.80E-01

-1.31E+00

1.70E-01

-1.23658

Energy Cost

1.29

1.00E+01

1.29E+01

8.00E+00

10.32

Biomass KWH1

11.45

3.21E-01

3.68E+00

3.21E-01

3.67545

Energy ConsP

8.67E-08

9.46E+07

8.20E+00

1.10E+08

9.53832

Temp

3.437

7.00E-01

2.41E+00

1.00E+00

3.437

Temp1

6.772

6.50E-01

4.40E+00

7.50E-01

5.079

Result

3.91E+02

413.209741

             

Temp5

         

R Square

0.99

         

SE

3.00E-02

         

           

Coefficients

Coefficient Value

Value

Temperature

Ave

Temperature

Intercept

-23.22

1.00E+00

-2.32E+01

1.00E+00

-23.22

Coal KWH1

3.359

1.48E+00

4.97E+00

9.00E-01

3.0231

NG KWH1

1.007

4.71E+00

4.74E+00

3.10E+00

3.1217

Oil KWH1

1.93

1.85E+00

3.57E+00

1.15E+00

2.2195

NP KWH1

8.649

2.30E-01

1.99E+00

7.00E-01

6.0543

Hydro KWH1

1.534

3.67E-01

5.63E-01

3.67E-01

0.562978

Geo KWH1

0.1988

9.20E-02

1.83E-02

9.20E-02

0.0182896

Solar KWh1

3.739

4.17E-02

1.56E-01

4.17E-02

0.1559163

Wind KWH1

2.843

1.43E-01

4.07E-01

1.43E-01

0.406549

CO2 GDP

-0.000432

5.10E+02

-2.20E-01

4.80E+02

-0.20736

CO2 GDP1

0.0002631

4.16E+02

1.09E-01

3.90E+02

0.102609

USP

-2.602

1.80E-01

-4.68E-01

1.70E-01

-0.44234

Energy Cost

-0.102

1.00E+01

-1.02E+00

8.00E+00

-0.816

Biomass KWH1

1.463

3.21E-01

4.70E-01

3.21E-01

0.469623

Energy ConsP

2.80E-08

9.46E+07

2.65E+00

1.10E+08

3.07571

CO2

0.01546

3.90E+02

6.03E+00

4.15E+02

6.4159

Temp

-0.09777

7.00E-01

-6.84E-02

1.00E+00

-0.09777

Result

6.74E-01

0.8427049

             
             
             

Temp

R Square

0.92

SE

9.50E-02

Coefficients

Coefficient Value

Value

Temperature

Ave

Temperature

Intercept

-71.98

1.00E+00

-7.20E+01

1.00E+00

-71.98

Coal KWH1

9.077

1.48E+00

1.34E+01

9.00E-01

8.1693

NG KWH1

2.671

4.71E+00

1.26E+01

3.10E+00

8.2801

Oil KWH1

4.071

1.85E+00

7.53E+00

1.15E+00

4.68165

NP KWH1

21.33

2.30E-01

4.91E+00

7.00E-01

14.931

Hydro KWH1

3.985

3.67E-01

1.46E+00

3.67E-01

1.462495

Geo KWH1

-4.161

9.20E-02

-3.83E-01

9.20E-02

-0.382812

Solar KWh1

4.266

4.17E-02

1.78E-01

4.17E-02

0.1778922

Wind KWH1

4.449

1.43E-01

6.36E-01

1.43E-01

0.636207

CO2 GDP

0.005277

5.10E+02

2.69E+00

4.80E+02

2.53296

CO2 GDP1

-0.0009683

4.16E+02

-4.03E-01

3.90E+02

-0.377637

USP

-5.521

1.80E-01

-9.94E-01

1.70E-01

-0.93857

Energy Cost

-0.2749

1.00E+01

-2.75E+00

8.00E+00

-2.1992

Biomass KWH1

2.388

3.21E-01

7.67E-01

3.21E-01

0.766548

Energy ConsP

2.05E-08

9.46E+07

1.94E+00

1.10E+08

2.25786

CO2

0.0813

3.90E+02

3.17E+01

4.15E+02

33.7395

Temp5

-1.013

6.50E-01

-6.58E-01

7.50E-01

-0.75975

Result

6.68E-01

0.9975432

             

These results indicate that carbon emissions in our atmosphere will increase to over 410 parts per million and global temperatures will increase dramatically from around 0.7 degrees to .85 and 1 degree respectively for the 5 year average and the annual reading. In other words, moving to an energy plan using more nuclear power will do very little to combat the current trends of increasing CO2 emissions and global temperatures. This would be expected since this analysis is just a very small percentage of the overall global energy consumption. The overall analysis of consuming more nuclear energy will be completed tomorrow.

My Book: Is America Dying? (Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble)

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