Friday, June 8, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (6/8/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 191 (R +19), Obama at 61% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 239; Democrats 196;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 191

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

0

12

0.5

3.5

Alaska

3

0

12

0.5

0.5

Arizona

11

4

9

0.6590993

5.931893658

Arkansas

6

0

12

0.5

2

California

55

-16.8

47

0.0425324

2.254217513

Colorado

9

-1.7

32

0.4308335

3.015834241

Connecticut

7

-12

45

0.1093451

0.546725388

DC

3

0

12

0.5

0.5

Florida

0

29

-0.2

31

0.4918221

13.27919758

Georgia

16

10

3

0.8473221

11.86250877

Hawaii

4

0

12

0.5

1

Idaho

4

0

12

0.5

1

Illinois

20

0

12

0.5

9

Indiana

11

9

4

0.8218697

7.39682742

Iowa

6

-2.6

33

0.3949255

1.579702126

Kansas

6

0

12

0.5

2

Kentucky

8

0

12

0.5

3

Louisiana

8

0

12

0.5

3

Massachusetts

11

-20

48

0.0201807

0.181626356

Maine

4

-8

41

0.2061045

0.412209054

Maryland

10

0

12

0.5

4

Michigan

16

-7.5

40

0.2210174

3.094243943

Minnesota

10

-10

44

0.1526779

1.221423561

Mississippi

6

0

12

0.5

2

Missouri

10

1

11

0.5408207

4.326565659

Montana

3

7

5

0.7634705

0.763470521

Nebraska

5

13

2

0.9086553

2.725965991

Nevada

6

-6

38

0.2692743

1.077097184

New Hampshire

4

-6.4

39

0.2559089

0.511817756

New Jersey

14

-9

43

0.1781303

2.137563439

New Mexico

5

-12.3

46

0.103696

0.311088116

New York

29

-24.2

49

0.0065592

0.177099062

North Carolina

15

0

2.5

10

0.6011226

7.814593687

North Dakota

3

0

12

0.5

0.5

Ohio

18

-3.8

35

0.348451

5.575215712

Oklahoma

7

35

1

0.9998331

4.999165514

Oregon

7

-4

36

0.3409007

1.704503524

Pennsylvania

20

-8.5

42

0.1918052

3.452494395

Rhode Island

4

0

12

0.5

1

South Carolina

9

0

12

0.5

3.5

South Dakota

3

0

12

0.5

0.5

Tennessee

11

7

5

0.7634705

6.871234686

Texas

38

7

5

0.7634705

27.48493874

Utah

6

0

12

0.5

2

Vermont

3

-31

50

0.0007426

0.000742631

Virginia

13

-2.7

34

0.3909844

4.300828783

Washington

12

0

12

0.5

5

West Virginia

5

0

12

0.5

1.5

Wisconsin

10

-4.7

37

0.3149892

2.519913552

Wyoming

3

6

8

0.7307257

0.730725704

0

Total

315

220

9.75595

0.4474148

0.399451573

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

4

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

1

0.9923343

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

4

0.5

-1

Louisiana

Jindal

0

4

0.5

1

Mississippi

Barbour

0

4

0.5

1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-11

14

0.0201111

-1

Montana

Schweitzer

0

4

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Lamontagne

-2

13

0.354577

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

7.3

2

0.91331

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Dalrymple

0

4

0.5

1

Utah

Herbert

0

4

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

4

0.5

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

6.3

3

0.879988

Gain

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

0

4

0.5

-1

0

5.36204

0.5471657

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

10.8

3

0.8656025

1

California

Feinstein

0

10

0.5

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

Shays

-3.3

24

0.3677207

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

10

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-6

26

0.2694899

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-20

32

0.0202871

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

21

1

0.9842322

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

0.3

9

0.5122527

1

Maine

Pingree

Summers

-3

23

0.3793538

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-14

29

0.0758577

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

0

10

0.5

-1

Mississippi

Wicker

0

10

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Steelman

3.5

7.5

0.6399685

Gain

-1

Maryland

Cardin

0

9

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

2.5

6

0.6010176

Gain

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

14

2

0.9241423

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

5.4

5

0.7098412

1

New York

Gillibrand

Turner

-32

33

0.0005254

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-11

28

0.130015

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-4.5

25

0.3224827

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

0

10

0.5

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-8.3

27

0.1977015

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-14.6

30

0.0674658

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

10

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Corker

0

10

0.5

1

Texas

Hutchison

0

10

0.5

1

Utah

Hatch

0

10

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

10

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-0.5

22

0.4795845

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-15

31

0.0622825

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

0

10

0.5

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

7.6

4

0.78177

Gain

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

8

0.5407775

1

0

9.76632

0.4524961

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

30

0.8869765

Arkansas 2

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

10

0.9252353

Arkansas 4

Ross

0

8

10

10

10

7.6

38

0.8633093

Arizona 1

Gosar

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

82

0.4200493

Arizona 5

Schweikert

0

5

15

15

15

10

10

0.9252353

Arizona 2

Giffords

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

80

0.4770146

Arizona 9

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

89

0.3327403

California 3

Garamendi

0

-1

-5

-10

-10

-5.2

102

0.2268015

California 7

Lungren

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

80

0.4770146

California 9

McNerney

0

-2

-5

-5

-10

-4.4

99

0.2629992

California 10

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

56

0.7178541

California 16

Costa

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

111

0.1431022

California 21

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

61

0.6980605

California 23

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9653077

California 24

Capps

0

-3

-10

-5

-10

-5.6

105

0.2098131

California 26

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

78

0.5229854

California 31

Miller

0

-2

0

-5

-5

-2.4

86

0.3647138

California 36

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

38

0.8633093

California 41

0

-3

-5

-5

-10

-4.6

100

0.2536812

California 47

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6

107

0.1935969

California 52

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

77

0.5458946

Colorado 3

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

58

0.7080354

Colorado 4

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9292218

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

69

0.6244021

Connecticut 5

Murphy

McMahon

-3

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.7

113

0.1335597

Florida 2

Southerland

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.8364602

Florida 9

0

-3

0

-5

-5

-2.6

87

0.3539377

Florida 26

Rivera

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

58

0.7080354

Florida 10

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

30

0.8869765

Florida 13

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

33

0.8813536

Florida 16

Buchanan

0

5

10

10

15

8

36

0.8755359

Florida 18

West

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

68

0.6244021

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

15

0.9210798

Florida 22

0

-5

0

-5

-5

-3

89

0.3327403

Georgia 12

Barrow

0

10

5

5

5

5

51

0.7644216

Illinois 8

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

109

0.1565264

Illinois 10

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

100

0.2536812

Illinois 11

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

93

0.3223338

Illinois 12

Costello

0

-2

0

0

-5

-1.4

82

0.4200493

Illinois 13

Johnson

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

66

0.6567226

Illinois 17

Schilling

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

93

0.3223338

Indiana 2

Donnelly

0

7

5

5

5

4.4

53

0.7370008

Indiana 8

Bucshon

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

30

0.8869765

Iowa 1

Braley

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

118

0.1244641

Iowa 2

Loebsack

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

114

0.1304783

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

68

0.6244021

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

58

0.7080354

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

0

9

-10

-5

-15

-4.2

98

0.2724891

Maine 2

Michaud

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

112

0.1366907

Maryland 1

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9435527

Maryland 6

Bartlett

0

-2

-10

-5

-10

-5.4

103

0.2182121

Massachusetts 10

Keating

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

130

0.0747647

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

0

-7

-5

-5

-10

-5.4

103

0.2182121

Missouri 2

Akin

0

5

15

15

15

10

10

0.9252353

Michigan 1

Benishek

0

3

5

5

10

4.6

52

0.7463188

Michigan 3

Amash

0

6

10

10

15

8.2

33

0.8813536

Michigan 7

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

22

0.9075636

Michigan 11

McCotter

0

1

15

10

15

8.2

33

0.8813536

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-15

-10

-15

-7.8

114

0.1304783

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

40

0.8502861

Minnesota 3

Paulsen

0

0

15

10

15

8

36

0.8755359

Minnesota 6

Bachman

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

6

0.9330429

Minnesota 8

Cravaack

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4088161

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

5

-15

-10

-15

-7

109

0.1565264

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

6

7

10

5

10

7

43

0.8434736

New Jersey 3

Runyan

0

1

5

10

5

4.2

54

0.7275109

New Jersey 5

Garrett

0

7

10

15

15

9.4

19

0.9122473

New Jersey 6

Pallone

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.0632975

New Jersey 7

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

16

0.9167516

New Jersey 8

Pascrell

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0564473

New York 2

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

26

0.8976461

New York 3

Israel

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

130

0.0747647

New York 1

Bishop

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

89

0.3327403

New York 4

McCarthy

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

126

0.0832484

New York 11

Grimm

0

5

5

10

10

6

47

0.8064031

New York 18

Hayworth

0

2

0

0

5

1.4

75

0.5799507

New York 19

Gibson

0

-1

0

5

5

1.8

72

0.6023426

New York 22

Hanna

0

3

10

5

10

5.6

49

0.7901869

New York 21

Owens

0

1

-5

-5

-5

-2.8

88

0.3432774

New York 24

Buerkle

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

97

0.2919646

New York 25

Slaughter

0

5

-5

-5

-10

-3

89

0.3327403

New York 23

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

28

0.8924066

New York 27

Hochul

0

7

0

5

5

3.4

63

0.6879354

Nebraska 2

Terry

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9292218

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-4

0

5

0

5

1.6

74

0.5911839

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4088161

New Mexico 1

Heinrich

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

118

0.1244641

Nevada 2

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

10

0.9252353

Nevada 3

Heck

0

0

0

0

5

1

76

0.557297

Nevada 4

0

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.4

108

0.178169

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

19

0.9122473

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

0

11

0

5

5

4.2

54

0.7275109

North Carolina 8

Kissell

0

12

5

5

5

5.4

50

0.7817879

North Carolina 11

Shuler

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

28

0.8924066

North Carolina 13

Miller

0

10

10

15

15

10

10

0.9252353

North Dakota 1

Berg

0

10

10

10

15

9

25

0.9026975

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

56

0.7178541

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.8364602

Ohio 16

Renacci

0

4

0

0

5

1.8

72

0.6023426

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

5

5.8

48

0.7983926

Oregon 1

Wu

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

130

0.0747647

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

122

0.0973025

Pennsylvania 3

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

16

0.9167516

Pennsylvania 4

Altmire

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

114

0.1304783

Pennsylvania 6

Gerlach

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

40

0.8502861

Pennsylvania 7

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

40

0.8502861

Pennsylvania 8

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

66

0.6567226

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

0

6

0

0

-5

0.2

79

0.5114975

Pennsylvania 11

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9292218

Pennsylvania 15

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

19

0.9122473

Pennsylvania 18

Murphy

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

22

0.9075636

Pennsylvania 17

Holden

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

114

0.1304783

South Carolina 7

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

22

0.9075636

South Dakota 1

Noem

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9435527

Tennessee 5

Cooper

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

126

0.0832484

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

0

-13

0

0

-5

-3.6

95

0.3019395

Texas 10

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

5

0.9367025

Texas 14

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

16

0.9167516

Texas 23

Canseco

0

6

0

0

5

2.2

68

0.6244021

Texas 34

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

126

0.0832484

Texas 35

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

122

0.0973025

Utah 4

Matheson

0

13

0

0

5

3.6

61

0.6980605

Virginia 2

Rigell

0

5

10

10

10

7

43

0.8434736

Virginia 11

Connolly

0

-2

-15

-10

-15

-8.4

121

0.1130235

Washington 1

Inslee

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

95

0.3019395

Washington 6

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

122

0.0973025

Washington 2

Larsen

0

0

-15

-10

-15

-8

118

0.1244641

Washington 3

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

26

0.8976461

Washington 10

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

122

0.0973025

West Virginia 1

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

4

0.9402044

West Virginia 3

Rahall

0

6

-10

-10

-15

-5.8

106

0.2016074

Wisconsin 3

Kind

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

129

0.0789202

Wisconsin 7

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

65

0.6672597

Wisconsin 8

Ribble

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

63

0.6879354

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