Friday, July 20, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Model (7/20/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 58.6% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 231; Democrats 204;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

15

3

0.8902725

6.231907335

Alaska

3

0

15

0.5

0.5

Arizona

11

6.8

11

0.7111282

6.400153621

Arkansas

6

0

15

0.5

2

California

55

-17.2

47

0.0795534

4.216330034

Colorado

9

-2.9

34

0.4061697

2.843187811

Connecticut

7

-12

44

0.1629557

0.814778263

DC

3

0

15

0.5

0.5

Florida

0

29

-0.4

30

0.4869385

13.1473404

Georgia

16

10

6

0.7935076

11.10910635

Hawaii

4

0

15

0.5

1

Idaho

4

0

15

0.5

1

Illinois

20

0

15

0.5

9

Indiana

11

9

7

0.7693741

6.924366733

Iowa

6

-1.3

31

0.4576227

1.830490632

Kansas

6

0

15

0.5

2

Kentucky

8

0

15

0.5

3

Louisiana

8

0

15

0.5

3

Massachusetts

11

-19.2

48

0.057997

0.521973238

Maine

4

-15.4

46

0.103704

0.207408098

Maryland

10

0

15

0.5

4

Michigan

16

-1.8

32

0.441425

6.179949402

Minnesota

10

-11.6

43

0.1711484

1.369187556

Mississippi

6

0

15

0.5

2

Missouri

10

3

13

0.5970024

4.776019114

Montana

3

7

8

0.7166968

0.716696822

Nebraska

5

13

5

0.8563918

2.569175458

Nevada

6

-5.3

37

0.3321857

1.328742847

New Hampshire

4

-5.3

37

0.3321857

0.664371423

New Jersey

14

-15.3

45

0.1051869

1.262243239

New Mexico

5

-10.7

41

0.1905264

0.571579316

New York

29

-26

49

0.016648

0.449495714

North Carolina

15

0

1.2

14

0.5391285

7.008669929

North Dakota

3

14

4

0.8741259

0.874125851

Ohio

18

-3.8

35

0.3778669

6.04587051

Oklahoma

7

35

2

0.9979168

4.989584086

Oregon

7

-6

39

0.3116455

1.558227718

Pennsylvania

20

-7.8

40

0.2615582

4.708048431

Rhode Island

4

0

15

0.5

1

South Carolina

9

0

15

0.5

3.5

South Dakota

3

0

15

0.5

0.5

Tennessee

11

7

8

0.7166968

6.450271399

Texas

38

7

8

0.7166968

25.8010856

Utah

6

40

1

0.999471

3.997883836

Vermont

3

-31

50

0.0055772

0.005577232

Virginia

13

-2.2

33

0.4285357

4.713892188

Washington

12

-11.5

42

0.1732371

1.732371077

West Virginia

5

0

15

0.5

1.5

Wisconsin

10

-4.4

36

0.3593462

2.874769301

Wyoming

3

6

12

0.6883545

0.688354456

0

Total

315

220

12.2152

0.4725756

0.413984448

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

6

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

2

0.8772245

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

6

0.5

-1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-11

12

0.1629086

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

0

6

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Cilley

Lamontagne

0.3

5

0.5106894

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

5

3

0.6724269

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Taylor

Dalrymple

35

1

0.9991151

1

Utah

Herbert

0

6

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

6

0.5

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

2.7

4

0.5952911

Gain

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

0

6

0.5

-1

0

11.1951

0.568138

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

7.4

3

0.7666608

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-17.5

32

0.0425918

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

Shays

-3.3

24

0.3727414

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

10

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-2.8

23

0.391497

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-13

29

0.1004956

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

21

1

0.980569

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

0.2

9

0.5078478

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

10

0.5

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-12

27

0.1189268

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

0

10

0.5

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

10

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Steelman

6

7.5

0.7224665

Gain

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

0

9

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

-1.5

21

0.4413505

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

14

2

0.9157588

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

4.7

7

0.6780709

1

New York

Gillibrand

Turner

-35.5

33

0.0002398

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-12.3

28

0.1131629

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-5.5

25

0.294253

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

5

6

0.6885768

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-10.5

26

0.1508435

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-15.2

30

0.0674398

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

10

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Corker

0

10

0.5

1

Texas

Hutchison

0

10

0.5

1

Utah

Hatch

0

10

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

10

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-0.3

21

0.4882292

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-16

31

0.057764

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

0

10

0.5

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

6.6

4

0.7418963

Gain

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

8

0.5391784

1

0

10.1663

0.4448655

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.8824969

Arkansas 2

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9212843

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

17

0.9126432

Arizona 1

Gosar

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

83

0.4215511

Arizona 5

Schweikert

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9212843

Arizona 2

Giffords

0

3

-10

-5

-5

-3.4

92

0.3153721

Arizona 9

Barber

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

88

0.3357359

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

0

-1

-10

-10

-10

-6.2

108

0.1903701

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

5

1.6

72

0.5894779

California 9

McNerney

Gill

0

-2

-5

-5

-5

-3.4

92

0.3153721

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

59

0.714135

California 16

Costa

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

111

0.1477378

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

0

3

10

10

10

6.6

47

0.8246117

California 23

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9625717

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

94

0.3053919

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

79

0.5225484

California 31

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

30

0.8879764

California 36

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

39

0.8586918

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

94

0.3053919

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6

107

0.1981471

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

77

0.5450248

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

61

0.7044457

Colorado 4

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9253543

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

69

0.6221103

Connecticut 5

Murphy

McMahon

-3

-2

-10

-5

-10

-5.7

104

0.2101661

Florida 2

Southerland

0

4

5

10

10

5.8

52

0.793887

Florida 9

Grayson

Buchanan

0

-3

0

-5

-5

-2.6

86

0.3565938

Florida 26

Rivera

0

4

15

15

5

7.8

38

0.864929

Florida 10

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.8824969

Florida 13

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

36

0.8768302

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

0

5

10

5

10

6

51

0.8018529

Florida 18

West

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

68

0.6221103

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

16

0.9170484

Florida 22

Hasner

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

100

0.285865

Georgia 12

Barrow

0

10

5

5

5

5

54

0.76018

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

110

0.1611764

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

101

0.2577392

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

90

0.3254889

Illinois 12

Harriman

Plummer

0

-2

0

0

-5

-1.4

83

0.4215511

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

64

0.6538935

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

90

0.3254889

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

5

5

5

4.4

56

0.7330474

Indiana 8

Bucshon

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.8824969

Iowa 1

Braley

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

115

0.1290253

Iowa 2

Loebsack

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

112

0.135071

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

68

0.6221103

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

61

0.7044457

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-5

9

-5

-5

-15

-3.7

98

0.300455

Maine 2

Michaud

Raye

-12

-3

-10

-10

-15

-8.8

117

0.1067292

Maryland 1

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9400436

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

0

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.4

109

0.1827834

Massachusetts 10

Keating

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0787157

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

0

-7

-5

-5

-10

-5.4

103

0.2226028

Missouri 2

Akin

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9212843

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

0

3

0

5

5

2.6

66

0.6434062

Michigan 3

Amash

0

6

10

10

15

8.2

36

0.8768302

Michigan 7

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

25

0.903313

Michigan 11

McCotter

0

1

10

5

15

6.2

50

0.8096299

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

117

0.1067292

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8456396

Minnesota 3

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

27

0.8983822

Minnesota 6

Bachman

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

17

0.9126432

Minnesota 8

Cravaack

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

79

0.5225484

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

115

0.1290253

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

6

7

10

5

10

7

44

0.8388236

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

0

2

5

10

10

5.4

53

0.7773972

New Jersey 5

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

6

0.9292616

New Jersey 6

Pallone

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.0669901

New Jersey 7

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

17

0.9126432

New Jersey 8

Pascrell

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0599564

New York 2

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

28

0.8932708

New York 3

Israel

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0787157

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

88

0.3357359

New York 4

McCarthy

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0873568

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

15

5

5

10

10

7.5

40

0.8555011

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

0

2

0

0

5

1.4

75

0.5784489

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

77

0.5450248

New York 22

Hanna

0

3

10

5

15

6.6

47

0.8246117

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

0

1

-5

-5

-5

-2.8

87

0.3461065

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

99

0.2955543

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

0

-5

-5

-5

-10

-5

102

0.23982

New York 23

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

30

0.8879764

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

7

0

0

5

2.4

67

0.6328093

Nebraska 2

Terry

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9253543

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-4

0

5

0

5

1.6

72

0.5894779

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

85

0.4105221

New Mexico 1

Heinrich

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

119

0.1016178

Nevada 2

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9212843

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

0

0

0

0

5

1

76

0.5562137

Nevada 4

Horsford

Tarkkanian

6

-2

-10

-10

-10

-5.8

105

0.206113

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

22

0.9080657

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

0

11

0

5

5

4.2

58

0.7236706

North Carolina 8

Kissell

0

12

5

5

10

6.4

49

0.8172166

North Carolina 11

Rogers

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

30

0.8879764

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

11

0.9212843

North Dakota 1

Heitkamp

Berg

3

10

10

10

15

9.3

24

0.9057114

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

59

0.714135

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.8318142

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-3

4

0

0

5

1.5

74

0.5839716

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

10

6.8

45

0.8318142

Oregon 1

Wu

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0787157

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1016178

Pennsylvania 3

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

17

0.9126432

Pennsylvania 4

Altmire

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

112

0.135071

Pennsylvania 6

Gerlach

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8456396

Pennsylvania 7

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8456396

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

64

0.6538935

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

-8

6

0

0

-5

-0.6

82

0.4661999

Pennsylvania 11

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9253543

Pennsylvania 15

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

22

0.9080657

Pennsylvania 18

Murphy

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

25

0.903313

Pennsylvania 17

Holden

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

112

0.135071

South Carolina 7

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9253543

South Dakota 1

Noem

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9400436

Tennessee 5

Cooper

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0873568

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

0

-13

0

0

-5

-3.6

94

0.3053919

Texas 10

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

5

0.9330099

Texas 14

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

17

0.9126432

Texas 23

Canseco

0

6

0

0

5

2.2

68

0.6221103

Texas 34

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0873568

Texas 35

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1016178

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

-15

13

0

0

-5

0.1

81

0.5056399

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

0

5

5

5

10

5

54

0.76018

Virginia 11

Connolly

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

124

0.0919343

Washington 1

Inslee

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

94

0.3053919

Washington 6

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1016178

Washington 2

Larsen

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1016178

Washington 3

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

28

0.8932708

Washington 10

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0787157

West Virginia 1

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

4

0.9366026

West Virginia 3

Rahall

0

6

-10

-10

-15

-5.8

105

0.206113

Wisconsin 3

Kind

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

128

0.0829516

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

63

0.6642641

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

5

10

4.4

56

0.7330474

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