Friday, July 13, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (7/13/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 58.6% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 231; Democrats 204;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

15

3

0.8907734

6.235413952

Alaska

3

0

15

0.5

0.5

Arizona

11

6.8

11

0.7115421

6.403878969

Arkansas

6

0

15

0.5

2

California

55

-17.2

47

0.0791006

4.192331473

Colorado

9

-3

34

0.4027907

2.819534676

Connecticut

7

-12

43

0.1624296

0.812148077

DC

3

0

15

0.5

0.5

Florida

0

29

-0.8

30

0.4738343

12.79352632

Georgia

16

10

6

0.7940158

11.11622071

Hawaii

4

0

15

0.5

1

Idaho

4

0

15

0.5

1

Illinois

20

0

15

0.5

9

Indiana

11

9

7

0.7698616

6.9287541

Iowa

6

-2.5

32

0.4187436

1.674974527

Kansas

6

0

15

0.5

2

Kentucky

8

0

15

0.5

3

Louisiana

8

0

15

0.5

3

Massachusetts

11

-19.2

48

0.0576012

0.518410794

Maine

4

-15.8

46

0.0974384

0.194876809

Maryland

10

0

15

0.5

4

Michigan

16

-1.8

31

0.4412984

6.17817713

Minnesota

10

-11.6

42

0.1706236

1.364988505

Mississippi

6

0

15

0.5

2

Missouri

10

3

13

0.5972093

4.777674656

Montana

3

7

8

0.717119

0.717118993

Nebraska

5

13

4

0.8569158

2.570747406

Nevada

6

-5.3

37

0.3318428

1.327371262

New Hampshire

4

-5.7

38

0.3200183

0.640036584

New Jersey

14

-15

45

0.1092266

1.31071894

New Mexico

5

-12.3

44

0.1564551

0.469365272

New York

29

-25.2

49

0.0193438

0.522281885

North Carolina

15

0

1.3

14

0.5424692

7.052100196

North Dakota

3

13

4

0.8569158

0.856915802

Ohio

18

-2.6

33

0.4155414

6.648662907

Oklahoma

7

35

2

0.9979575

4.989787448

Oregon

7

-6

39

0.3112675

1.556337676

Pennsylvania

20

-8

40

0.2558003

4.604404603

Rhode Island

4

0

15

0.5

1

South Carolina

9

0

15

0.5

3.5

South Dakota

3

0

15

0.5

0.5

Tennessee

11

7

8

0.717119

6.454070935

Texas

38

7

8

0.717119

25.81628374

Utah

6

40

1

0.9994842

3.997936611

Vermont

3

-31

50

0.0054898

0.005489809

Virginia

13

-3

34

0.4027907

4.430697348

Washington

12

-11.5

41

0.1727127

1.727126988

West Virginia

5

0

15

0.5

1.5

Wisconsin

10

-3

34

0.4027907

3.222325344

Wyoming

3

6

12

0.6887325

0.688732465

0

Total

315

220

12.1887

0.4712875

0.414067639

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

5

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

1

0.9925129

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

5

0.5

-1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-11

12

0.0197618

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

0

5

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Cilley

Lamontagne

0.3

4

0.5223873

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

5

2

0.8253043

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Dalrymple

0

5

0.5

1

Utah

Herbert

0

5

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

5

0.5

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

2.7

3

0.6933315

Gain

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

0

5

0.5

-1

0

5.34319

0.5461081

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

7.4

3

0.7668843

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-17.5

31

0.0424354

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

Shays

-3.3

22

0.3726181

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

9

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-6

24

0.2773351

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-20

32

0.0244619

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

21

1

0.9806667

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

0.2

8

0.5078557

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

9

0.5

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-12

28

0.1186916

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

0

9

0.5

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

9

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Steelman

6

7.5

0.7226649

Gain

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

0

8

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

-1.5

20

0.4412921

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

14

2

0.9159722

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

4.7

5

0.6782371

1

New York

Gillibrand

Turner

-34

33

0.0004074

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-11

27

0.1393842

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-4.5

23

0.3288531

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

3

6

0.6161513

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-10.5

26

0.1506011

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-15.2

29

0.0672443

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

9

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Corker

0

9

0.5

1

Texas

Hutchison

0

9

0.5

1

Utah

Hatch

0

9

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

9

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-0.1

20

0.496072

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-16

30

0.0575816

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

0

9

0.5

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

-8

25

0.2154355

Gain

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

7

0.5392176

1

0

10.1561

0.4230322

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.8833882

Arkansas 2

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.922074

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

0

8

10

15

10

8.6

29

0.8888583

Arizona 1

Gosar

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

82

0.4212555

Arizona 5

Schweikert

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.922074

Arizona 2

Giffords

0

3

-10

-5

-5

-3.4

93

0.3147201

Arizona 9

Barber

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

88

0.3351456

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

0

-1

-10

-10

-10

-6.2

108

0.1894621

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

80

0.4773656

California 9

McNerney

Gill

0

-2

-5

-5

-5

-3.4

93

0.3147201

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

58

0.7148687

California 16

Costa

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

111

0.1468178

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

0

3

10

10

10

6.6

47

0.8255298

California 23

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9631236

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

95

0.3047112

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

77

0.5226344

California 31

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

29

0.8888583

California 36

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

39

0.8596087

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

95

0.3047112

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6

107

0.1972467

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

76

0.545196

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7051537

Colorado 4

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9261278

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

69

0.6225616

Connecticut 5

Murphy

McMahon

-3

-2

-10

-5

-10

-5.7

105

0.20928

Florida 2

Southerland

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.8327351

Florida 9

Grayson

Buchanan

0

-3

0

-5

-5

-2.6

86

0.3560706

Florida 26

Rivera

0

4

15

15

5

7.8

38

0.8658414

Florida 10

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.8833882

Florida 13

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

36

0.8777297

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

0

5

10

5

10

6

49

0.8027533

Florida 18

West

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

68

0.6225616

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

16

0.9178537

Florida 22

Hasner

0

-5

0

-5

-5

-3

88

0.3351456

Georgia 12

Barrow

0

10

5

5

5

5

53

0.7610179

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

110

0.1602543

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

100

0.256938

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

91

0.324867

Illinois 12

Harriman

Plummer

0

-2

0

0

-5

-1.4

82

0.4212555

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

66

0.6544509

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

91

0.324867

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

5

5

5

4.4

55

0.7338278

Indiana 8

Bucshon

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.8833882

Iowa 1

Braley

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

116

0.1281187

Iowa 2

Loebsack

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

113

0.1341586

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

68

0.6225616

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7051537

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-5

9

-10

-5

-15

-4.7

101

0.2523842

Maine 2

Michaud

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

112

0.1403913

Maryland 1

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9407473

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

0

-2

-10

-5

-10

-5.4

103

0.2217348

Massachusetts 10

Keating

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.077926

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

0

-7

-5

-5

-10

-5.4

103

0.2217348

Missouri 2

Akin

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.922074

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

62

0.6952888

Michigan 3

Amash

0

6

10

10

15

8.2

36

0.8777297

Michigan 7

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

24

0.9041606

Michigan 11

McCotter

0

1

10

5

15

6.2

48

0.8105379

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

118

0.1058577

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8465614

Minnesota 3

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

26

0.8992422

Minnesota 6

Bachman

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

17

0.9134634

Minnesota 8

Cravaack

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4101863

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

116

0.1281187

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

6

7

10

5

10

7

44

0.8397457

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

0

2

5

10

5

4.4

55

0.7338278

New Jersey 5

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

6

0.9300184

New Jersey 6

Pallone

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.0662506

New Jersey 7

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

17

0.9134634

New Jersey 8

Pascrell

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0592527

New York 2

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

27

0.8941423

New York 3

Israel

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.077926

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

88

0.3351456

New York 4

McCarthy

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0865366

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

15

5

5

10

10

7.5

40

0.8564197

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

0

2

0

0

5

1.4

74

0.5787445

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

81

0.4323873

New York 22

Hanna

0

3

10

5

10

5.6

51

0.7866149

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

0

1

-5

-5

-5

-2.8

87

0.3455491

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

99

0.2948463

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

0

-5

-5

-5

-10

-5

102

0.2389821

New York 23

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

29

0.8888583

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

7

0

5

5

3.4

63

0.6852799

Nebraska 2

Terry

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9261278

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-4

0

5

0

5

1.6

72

0.5898137

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4101863

New Mexico 1

Heinrich

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

119

0.1007578

Nevada 2

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.922074

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

0

0

0

0

5

1

75

0.5564269

Nevada 4

0

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.4

109

0.1818695

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

21

0.9089

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

0

11

0

5

5

4.2

57

0.7244284

North Carolina 8

Kissell

0

12

5

5

5

5.4

52

0.7782652

North Carolina 11

Rogers

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

29

0.8888583

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

11

0.922074

North Dakota 1

Heitkamp

Berg

3

10

10

10

15

9.3

23

0.9065525

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

58

0.7148687

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.8327351

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-3

4

0

0

5

1.5

73

0.5842875

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

5

5.8

50

0.7947783

Oregon 1

Wu

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.077926

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1007578

Pennsylvania 3

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

17

0.9134634

Pennsylvania 4

Altmire

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

113

0.1341586

Pennsylvania 6

Gerlach

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8465614

Pennsylvania 7

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8465614

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

66

0.6544509

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

0

6

0

0

-5

0.2

78

0.5113218

Pennsylvania 11

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9261278

Pennsylvania 15

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

21

0.9089

Pennsylvania 18

Murphy

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

24

0.9041606

Pennsylvania 17

Holden

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

113

0.1341586

South Carolina 7

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9261278

South Dakota 1

Noem

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9407473

Tennessee 5

Cooper

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0865366

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

0

-13

0

0

-5

-3.6

95

0.3047112

Texas 10

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

5

0.9337494

Texas 14

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

17

0.9134634

Texas 23

Canseco

0

6

0

0

5

2.2

68

0.6225616

Texas 34

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0865366

Texas 35

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1007578

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

-15

13

0

0

-5

0.1

79

0.5056614

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

0

5

5

10

5

5

53

0.7610179

Virginia 11

Connolly

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

124

0.0911

Washington 1

Inslee

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

95

0.3047112

Washington 6

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1007578

Washington 2

Larsen

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1007578

Washington 3

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

27

0.8941423

Washington 10

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.077926

West Virginia 1

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

4

0.9373244

West Virginia 3

Rahall

0

6

-10

-10

-15

-5.8

106

0.2052217

Wisconsin 3

Kind

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

128

0.0821463

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

65

0.6648544

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

63

0.6852799

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