Monday, November 5, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (Final Projections)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote Projection: Obama 277; Republican 261 (R +88), Obama at 51.5% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 196; Projection: Republicans 240; Democrats 198;

Popular Vote Projection: 48.9% Romney – 48.8% Obama – 2.3% other candidates (See Yesterday’s Post)

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 303; Republican 235 (Romney is behind narrowly in NH, VA, and CO in the polls, but I think he will win those states based on early voting, independent vote, and or Republican population)

Governor Races: Republicans 30; Democrats 20 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 238; Democrats 200

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

19

10

0.8106627

5.674638695

Alaska

3

25

6

0.876638

0.876638016

Arizona

11

7.5

23

0.6358933

5.723039371

Arkansas

6

27

4

0.8945347

3.578138898

California

55

-14

42

0.2582751

13.68858153

Colorado

9

0

-0.6

27

0.4889107

3.422375163

Connecticut

7

-10.8

38

0.3083952

1.541976057

Delaware

3

-20

44

0.1770477

0.177047745

DC

3

-75

51

0.0002554

0.000255398

Florida

0

29

1.8

25

0.5332335

14.39730561

Georgia

16

12.3

17

0.7156289

10.0188046

Hawaii

4

-28

49

0.0972563

0.194512682

Idaho

4

38

3

0.9608539

1.921707727

Illinois

20

-15

43

0.2435258

4.383463992

Indiana

11

9.5

20

0.6700932

6.03083854

Iowa

6

-3

31

0.4447246

1.778898408

Kansas

6

20

8

0.8229523

3.291809022

Kentucky

8

15

16

0.7564742

4.538845336

Louisiana

8

18

11

0.7978615

4.787169178

Massachusetts

11

-20

44

0.1770477

1.593429701

Maine

4

-11.5

39

0.2970729

0.594145784

Maryland

10

-20.7

46

0.1687521

1.350016857

Michigan

16

-3.8

32

0.4301202

6.021682646

Minnesota

10

-5.2

35

0.4048026

3.238420721

Mississippi

6

20

8

0.8229523

3.291809022

Missouri

10

11.6

19

0.7045289

5.636231556

Montana

3

9

21

0.6616621

0.661662108

Nebraska

5

16

14

0.7707563

2.312268766

Nevada

6

-2.9

30

0.4465559

1.786223449

New Hampshire

4

0

-2

28

0.4630839

0.926167746

New Jersey

14

-11.8

40

0.2922794

3.50735231

New Mexico

5

-9.3

37

0.3332692

0.999807582

New York

29

-26.4

48

0.1106251

2.986877593

North Carolina

0

15

3

24

0.5552754

7.218580173

North Dakota

3

17.7

12

0.7939225

0.79392246

Ohio

18

-2.8

29

0.4483883

7.17421221

Oklahoma

7

27

4

0.8945347

4.472673623

Oregon

7

-6

36

0.3905053

1.952526307

Pennsylvania

20

-3.9

33

0.4283009

7.709416547

Rhode Island

4

-23

47

0.1432851

0.286570205

South Carolina

9

12

18

0.7108962

4.976273453

South Dakota

3

8.5

22

0.6531492

0.653149204

Tennessee

11

25

6

0.876638

7.889742142

Texas

38

17

13

0.7845561

28.24402062

Utah

6

52

1

0.9920096

3.968038428

Vermont

3

-37

50

0.0432324

0.043232409

Virginia

13

0

-0.3

26

0.4944548

5.439003165

Washington

12

-13.6

41

0.2643019

2.64301903

West Virginia

5

16

14

0.7707563

2.312268766

Wisconsin

10

-4.2

34

0.4228524

3.382819169

Wyoming

3

40

2

0.9680838

0.968083844

0

Total

303

235

21.5825

0.533566

0.485194698

0.440106373

0.488

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

Cragg

0

6

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

11

4

0.6798829

1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-10.3

9

0.3308274

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

1.5

5

0.5254084

Gain

1

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Lamontagne

-3.6

8

0.4392157

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

15.7

3

0.7476351

Gain

1

-1

North Dakota

Taylor

Dalrymple

28

2

0.8829124

1

Utah

Cooke

Herbert

53

1

0.9878351

1

Vermont

Shumlin

Brock

-34

11

0.0742848

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

-1

7

0.4830547

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

-21

10

0.1861283

-1

0

23.5359

0.5306532

2

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

4

7

0.5793408

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-20.6

26

0.1512545

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

McMahon

-5

17

0.4011935

-1

Delaware

Carper

Wade

-25

27

0.1054133

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-6.9

20

0.3649128

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-17

23

0.1974177

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

1

9

0.5199595

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

-3.5

15

0.4304685

Gain

-1

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

12

0.5

Gain

0

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-13.2

22

0.2544074

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

-31

30

0.0603782

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

20

4

0.8415955

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Akin

-4.5

18

0.4108989

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

-28.5

28

0.0768653

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

0.4

10

0.5079866

Gain

1

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

17

5

0.8025823

Gain

1

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

3.5

4.8

0.5695315

1

New York

Gillibrand

Long

-41.4

33

0.0191259

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-17.4

24

0.1919039

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-10.7

21

0.2961332

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

5.7

6

0.6122911

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-5.3

18

0.3953989

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-5.4

19

0.3934725

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

Hinkley

-26

28

0.0965697

-1

Tennessee

Clayton

Corker

38

2

0.9714124

1

Texas

Sadler

Cruz

22

3

0.8645822

1

Utah

Howell

Hatch

41

1

0.9799213

1

Vermont

Sanders

MacGovern

-40

32

0.0226384

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-1.7

13

0.4660957

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-19

25

0.170806

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

-39

31

0.0254678

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

-2.2

14

0.4561595

-1

Wyoming

Chesnut

Barrasso

1

9

0.5199595

1

0

19.9793

0.4017013

1

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Ellington

Crawford

25

7

15

15

15

12.9

2

0.9579113

Arkansas 2

Rule

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.9096687

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

29

8

15

15

15

13.5

1

0.9646398

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Paton

1

3

0

-5

-5

-1.3

84

0.4309196

Arizona 5

Morgan

Salmon

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.9096687

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-6.1

3

-10

-10

-10

-6.01

104

0.2105341

Arizona 9

Sinema

Parker

-2.5

0

-5

-5

-5

-3.25

92

0.331751

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

-15

-1

-10

-15

-10

-8.7

115

0.1220733

California 7

Bera

Lungren

5

3

0

-5

5

1.1

75

0.5585362

California 9

McNerney

Gill

-9

-2

-5

-5

-5

-4.3

97

0.2824263

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

4.5

5

0

-5

10

2.45

73

0.6285388

California 16

Costa

Whelan

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

120

0.1041245

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

4

3

10

10

10

7

48

0.8256471

California 23

Phillips

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

3

0.9541776

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

1

-3

-5

-5

5

-1.5

85

0.4204245

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

-5

-5

-2.6

89

0.3638951

California 31

Dutton

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

36

0.8751951

California 36

Ruiz

Bono Mack

3

3

0

5

5

2.9

67

0.6510764

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

-4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4

94

0.2961565

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

107

0.1743529

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

1.5

-1

0

-5

5

-0.05

78

0.4973297

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

11

4

5

5

5

4.9

55

0.7440789

Colorado 4

Shaffer

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9139508

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

3

1

0

5

5

2.5

73

0.6310666

Connecticut 5

Esty

Roraback

-5

2.5

-5

-5

-5

-3

91

0.3439836

Florida 2

Lawson

Southerland

-1

4

5

10

10

5.7

53

0.7772889

Florida 9

Grayson

Long

-13

-3

0

-15

-15

-7.9

111

0.1451218

Florida 26

Garcia

Rivera

3

4

-5

-5

-5

-1.9

86

0.3996101

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

6

7

5

5

15

7

48

0.8256471

Florida 13

Ehrlich

Young

9

1

15

15

15

10.1

13

0.9118292

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

Buchanan

17

5

10

10

10

8.7

35

0.8779267

Florida 18

Murphy

West

4

1

0

5

5

2.6

71

0.6361049

Florida 7

Kendall

Mica

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

19

0.9052304

Florida 22

Frankel

Hasner

-6

-5

-10

-5

-5

-5.6

101

0.2267231

Georgia 12

Barrow

Anderson

-4

10

0

5

5

3.6

61

0.6850752

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

-12

-5

-10

-5

-10

-7.2

109

0.1675538

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

5

-8

-5

-5

5

-2.1

88

0.389305

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

-1

-6

-5

-5

-5

-4.3

97

0.2824263

Illinois 12

Enyart

Plummer

-3

-2

0

5

-5

-0.7

80

0.4626697

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

-2

-1

0

-5

5

-0.4

79

0.4786474

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

3

-6

0

-5

-5

-2.9

90

0.3489236

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

10

10

10

7.4

45

0.8390721

Indiana 8

Crooks

Bucshon

0

7

5

5

10

5.4

54

0.7651317

Iowa 1

Braley

Lange

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

112

0.1420905

Iowa 2

Loebsack

Archer

0

-4

-10

-5

-15

-6.8

106

0.1813247

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

64

0.6658163

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

4

4

5

5

5

4.2

57

0.7130311

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-5

9

0

-5

-5

-0.7

80

0.4626697

Maine 2

Michaud

Raye

-15.5

-3

-15

-15

-15

-11.2

133

0.0677617

Maryland 1

Rosen

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

5

0.9295692

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

-1

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.5

105

0.1921047

Massachusetts 9

Keating

Sheldon

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0903313

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

7.5

-7

5

5

10

3.35

63

0.6730932

Missouri 2

Koenen

Wagner

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.9096687

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

-6

3

0

-5

-5

-2

87

0.3944483

Michigan 3

Pestka

Amash

9

6

10

5

15

8.1

40

0.8608977

Michigan 7

Haskell

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

27

0.8909546

Michigan 11

Taj

Bentivolio

8

1

10

10

10

7

48

0.8256471

Minnesota 1

Walz

Quist

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

116

0.119384

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

8

1

10

10

15

8

42

0.8579095

Minnesota 3

Barnes

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

31

0.8858687

Minnesota 6

Graves

Bachman

5.5

8

5

10

15

8.15

39

0.8623757

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Cravaack

-2

-3

0

-5

5

-0.8

82

0.4573558

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Byberg

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

112

0.1420905

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

7

7

10

10

10

8.1

40

0.8608977

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

13.5

2

5

10

10

6.75

51

0.8169054

New Jersey 5

Gussen

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

9

0.9180792

New Jersey 6

Pallone

Little

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

131

0.0779435

New Jersey 7

Chivukula

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

21

0.9006334

New Jersey 8

Sires

Karczewski

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

132

0.0704308

New York 2

Falcone

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

33

0.880616

New York 3

Israel

Labate

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0903313

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

-6

0

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

93

0.3149248

New York 4

McCarthy

Becker

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0993666

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

14

5

5

10

10

7.4

45

0.8390721

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

5

2

0

5

5

2.9

67

0.6510764

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

9

-1

0

5

5

2.7

70

0.6411199

New York 22

Lamb

Hanna

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

21

0.9006334

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

-8

1

-10

-5

-10

-5.6

101

0.2267231

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

-3

-4

-5

-5

-5

-4.1

95

0.2915458

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

-11

-5

-10

-5

-10

-7.1

108

0.1709317

New York 23

Shinagawa

Reed

5

3

15

10

15

9.1

30

0.8884323

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

3

7

0

5

5

3.7

60

0.6898149

Nebraska 2

Ewing

Terry

9

6

15

15

15

11.1

4

0.9313574

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

2

0

5

5

5

3.2

64

0.6658163

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

-6

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4.2

96

0.2869689

New Mexico 1

Grisham

Arnold-Jones

-14

-5

-15

-15

-15

-11.4

134

0.0634877

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.9096687

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

9

0

0

5

5

2.9

67

0.6510764

Nevada 4

Horsford

Tarkkanian

9

-2

0

-5

5

0.5

77

0.5266836

North Carolina 2

Wilkins

Ellmers

16

2

15

15

15

11

5

0.9295692

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

11

11

0

-5

-5

1.3

74

0.5690804

North Carolina 8

Kissell

Hudson

2

12

10

10

10

8.6

36

0.8751951

North Carolina 11

Rogers

Meadows

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

36

0.8751951

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

14

0.9096687

North Dakota 1

Gullleson

Cramer

7.5

10

10

10

15

9.75

20

0.9040961

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

1

5

5

5

5

4.1

58

0.7084542

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

15

10

7.8

44

0.8518036

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-2

4

0

-5

5

0.6

76

0.5320098

Oklahoma 2

Wallace

Mullin

12

14

10

5

10

9

31

0.8858687

Oregon 1

Bonamici

Morgan

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0903313

Oregon 5

Schrader

Thompson

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.1141313

Pennsylvania 3

Eaton

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

21

0.9006334

Pennsylvania 4

Perkinson

Perry

19.5

6

-15

-15

-15

-5.85

103

0.2167695

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Gerlach

24

1

10

10

15

9.6

21

0.9006334

Pennsylvania 7

Badey

Meehan

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

27

0.8909546

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

2

-1

5

10

5

4

59

0.7038435

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

-4

6

0

-5

-5

-1.2

83

0.436186

Pennsylvania 11

Stilp

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9139508

Pennsylvania 15

Daugherty

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

26

0.8958755

Pennsylvania 18

Maggi

Murphy

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9139508

Pennsylvania 17

Cartwright

Cummings

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

110

0.1481964

South Carolina 7

Tinubu

Rice

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

27

0.8909546

South Dakota 1

Varilek

Noem

5

10

10

10

15

9.5

25

0.8982747

Tennessee 5

Cooper

Staats

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0993666

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

Doherty

2

-13

-5

-5

-5

-5.4

99

0.2348683

Texas 10

Cadien

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

8

0.9220565

Texas 14

Lampson

Weber

3

8

5

10

15

7.9

43

0.8548782

Texas 23

Gallego

Canseco

2.5

6

0

5

5

3.45

62

0.6779083

Texas 34

Vela

Bradshaw

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0993666

Texas 35

Doggett

Narvaiz

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.1141313

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

4

13

0

5

-5

3

66

0.6560164

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

13

5

10

10

5

7.3

47

0.8357808

Virginia 11

Connolly

Perkins

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

120

0.1041245

Washington 1

Delbene

Kostar

1

-3

-5

-10

-10

-5.5

100

0.2307756

Washington 6

Kilmer

Driscoll

-15

-5

-10

-15

-15

-10.5

130

0.0799135

Washington 2

Larsen

Matthews

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.1141313

Washington 3

Haugen

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

33

0.880616

Washington 10

Heck

Muri

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0903313

West Virginia 1

Thorn

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

7

0.9258855

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Snuffer

-28

6

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

114

0.1248049

Wisconsin 3

Kind

Boland

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

125

0.0947696

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

6

0

5

5

10

4.6

56

0.7309901

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

10

10

10

6.4

52

0.8042166

2 comments:

  1. No offense, Patrick, but I'm praying that you're wrong. :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I hope i am wrong too. I can only make predictions based on the data and state polling definately favors Obama. But it is probable many of these firms are oversampling Democrats - the question is how much are they oversampling them by.

      Delete