Sunday, October 12, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (10/12/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

5.6

14

0.6497257

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

-19

35

0.0959762

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

-2.3

25

0.4372471

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

Beauprez

0.5

20

0.513696

1

Rep Gain

-1

Hawaii

Ige

Aiona

1

19

0.5273758

1

Rep Gain

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

-1.5

23

0.4589765

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

-13

31

0.1859888

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

-0.5

21

0.486304

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

Johnson

-12

30

0.2049413

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Havenstein

-11

29

0.224997

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-25

36

0.043001

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-10

28

0.2461201

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Raimondo

Fung

-18

33

0.1082014

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

Milne

-18

33

0.1082014

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

DuVal

Ducey

4

16

0.6082266

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

27

3

0.9681465

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Walker

Parnell

-2.5

26

0.4318416

-1

Dem Gain

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

-0.6

22

0.4835662

-1

Dem Gain

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

2.8

17

0.5762425

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

18

6

0.8917986

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

17

8

0.8784907

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Davis

Brownback

-3

27

0.4183857

-1

Dem Gain

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-1.6

24

0.4562523

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

4.3

15

0.6161186

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

10

13

0.7538799

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

23

5

0.9428922

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

11

12

0.775003

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

15

9

0.8485244

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

18

6

0.8917986

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-16

32

0.1359276

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

15

9

0.8485244

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

28

1

0.9727537

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

McKamey

Haslam

26

4

0.9629139

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

12

11

0.7950587

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconsin

Burke

Walker

1.8

18

0.5491899

1

Rep Hold

1

Wyoming

Gosar

Mead

28

1

0.9727537

1

Rep Hold

1

0

14.5613

0.5548376

4

-2

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.9906669

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

4.7

18

0.5874929

1

Rep Gain

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

3.7

20

0.56909

1

Rep Gain

-1

Delaware

Coons

Wade

-18

33

0.1985623

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Perdue

2.4

21

0.544946

1

Rep Hold

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Cavasso

-40

36

0.029938

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

-13

29

0.2704163

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

Herr

-25

34

0.1197842

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

30

6

0.9209189

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-7.5

27

0.3621117

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

McFadden

-9

28

0.3360076

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

13

16

0.7295837

1

Rep Hold

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

4

35

0.5746285

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

32

2

0.9338849

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Orman

Roberts

-4

24

0.4253715

-1

Dem Gain

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

23

7

0.8603695

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

0.6

22

0.5112589

1

Rep Gain

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

5.6

17

0.6038938

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

Bell

-13

29

0.2704163

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

-16

31

0.2258204

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Johnson

Langford

31

4

0.9276241

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Silverstein

Inhofe

31

4

0.9276241

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

18

9

0.8014377

1

Rep Gain

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

Zaccaria

-30

35

0.0790811

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Adams

Alexander

16

11

0.7741796

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

18

9

0.8014377

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

19

8

0.8142883

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

16

11

0.7741796

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

Gillespie

15

14

0.7597939

1

Rep Gain

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-16

31

0.2258204

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

16

11

0.7741796

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-5.2

26

0.4033746

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Hardy

Enzi

45

2

0.9828667

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

13.5

15

0.7373105

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

-3.4

24

0.4364622

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

1.3

22

0.5243823

1

Rep Gain

-1

0

21.2573

0.5791227

10

8

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

7.5

8

5

5

5

5.35

31

0.7902072

Arkansas 4

Witt

Westerman

16

15

10

10

15

11.6

3

0.9599462

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Tobin

0

4

0

0

-5

-0.2

43

0.4879644

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-8

3

0

0

-5

-1.2

48

0.4281678

Arizona 9

Sinema

Rogers

0

1

-5

-10

-10

-4.8

62

0.2344827

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

-6

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

73

0.0921497

California 7

Bera

Ose

-4

0

0

-5

-5

-2.4

52

0.3586455

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

77

0.0825716

California 10

Eggman

Denham

10

1

10

10

15

8.2

16

0.8919774

California 16

Costa

Tacherra

0

-7

-10

-15

-15

-9.4

78

0.078073

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

19

-2

10

10

15

8.5

13

0.900144

California 25

Strckland

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

21

0.8742249

California 24

Capps

Mitchum

0

-4

-15

-5

15

-1.8

51

0.3929797

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

57

0.2832221

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

59

0.2730982

California 36

Ruiz

Nestande

0

1

0

-10

-10

-3.8

57

0.2832221

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

3.5

-2

0

0

-5

-1.05

47

0.4370666

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

0

-1

0

5

5

1.8

38

0.6070203

Connecticut 5

Esty

Greenberg

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

69

0.1257751

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

-2

6

5

5

5

4

33

0.7269018

Florida 26

Garcia

Cubelo

4

1

0

0

-5

-0.4

45

0.4759397

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

16

0.8919774

Florida 13

Sink

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

8

0.9174284

Florida 18

Murphy

Domino

-22

3

-5

-10

-10

-6.6

66

0.1596919

Hawaii 1

Takai

Djou

4

-15

-10

-10

-15

-9.6

79

0.0737628

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

-5

-5

-5

-0.2

43

0.4879644

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Kaifesh

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

69

0.1257751

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

-0.5

-8

0

-5

-5

-3.65

56

0.2909313

Illinois 11

Foster

Senger

-3

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.9

75

0.0896814

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

5

0

-5

0

5

0.5

40

0.5300652

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

17

0

5

10

10

6.7

27

0.8439467

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

-9

-7

-5

-10

-10

-7.3

67

0.1353761

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

10

10

10

7.2

24

0.8613147

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

-2.5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8.25

72

0.1066291

Iowa 3

Appel

Young

-5

0

0

0

-5

-1.5

50

0.4104836

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

7

5

10

10

15

8.7

11

0.9053321

Kentucky 6

Jensen

Barr

0

9

15

-5

-15

0.8

38

0.5480333

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

2

-2

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

55

0.3146275

Massachusetts 6

Moulton

Tisei

-1

-4

-5

-10

-5

-4.9

64

0.2298775

Michigan 8

Schertzeing

Bishop

0

2

10

15

5

6.4

29

0.8328656

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

5

5

5

4

33

0.7269018

Michigan 3

Goodrich

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

9

0.9078503

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

0

3

15

5

10

6.6

28

0.8403081

Michigan 11

McKenzie

Trott

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

9

0.9078503

Minnesota 1

Walz

Hagedorn

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

71

0.1196445

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

22

2

15

10

15

10.6

4

0.9451113

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Mills

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

48

0.4281678

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Westrom

-13

6

-10

-5

-5

-4.1

60

0.2681044

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

14

0.8974735

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

3

1

0

5

-5

0.5

40

0.5300652

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

5

-1

15

15

15

9.3

7

0.9197015

New York 1

Bishop

Zeldin

-5

2

-5

-5

-5

-3.1

54

0.3200035

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

0

-5

5

0.4

42

0.5240603

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

-4

0

-5

-5

-10

-4.4

61

0.2534039

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

24

-1

10

5

10

7.2

24

0.8613147

New York 21

Woolf

Stefanik

11

0

5

5

10

5.1

32

0.7791791

New York 24

Maffei

Katko

-5

-5

-10

-5

-15

-7.5

68

0.1289212

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

30

0.8009048

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

21

0.8742249

Nebraska 2

Ashford

Terry

-1

4

5

0

5

2.7

36

0.6581216

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0.5

1

0

0

-5

-0.75

46

0.4549556

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Garcia

-7.5

-3

-5

-5

-10

-5.35

65

0.2097928

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

10

10

15

8

18

0.8862722

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

6

0.9343089

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

10

10

10

10

8

18

0.8862722

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

0

-15

-5

-4.8

62

0.2344827

North Carolina 2

Aiken

Ellmers

8

15

10

15

15

11.8

2

0.9624813

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

10

15

15

10.4

5

0.9416785

Ohio 6

Garrison

Johnson

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

12

0.9027634

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

10

10

15

7.8

20

0.8803555

Oregon 5

Schrader

Smith

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

76

0.0872625

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

9

2

10

10

10

7.3

23

0.8646239

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

15

15

5

7.2

24

0.8613147

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-5

-2.4

52

0.3586455

Utah 4

Owens

Love

11

16

10

15

15

12.3

1

0.9682496

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

35

0.6960065

Washington 1

Delbene

Larsen

0

-4

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

73

0.0921497

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

12

11

5

15

5

8.4

14

0.8974735

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-12

14

0

0

-5

0.6

39

0.5360632

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 27; Democrats 23 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 204; Model Projection: Republicans 247; Democrats 191

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 27; Democrats 23 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 53; Democrats 47 (Including 3 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 238; Democrats 200

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